Key Insights
Quick Answer:
- Best X for Y: Best way to improve EV: Play optimal strategy consistently
- Best time to do X: Best time to focus on skill: Before increasing stakes
- Biggest mistake: Assuming close enough strategy is good enough
- Pro tip: Small errors compound faster than bad luck
What “Expected Return” Actually Means
Expected return (EV):
- is the long-term average outcome
- assumes correct play
- ignores short-term luck
It does not guarantee wins in a session. It describes what happens over thousands of hands.
Skill Is the Difference Between RTP and Reality
Casinos advertise RTP assuming:
- perfect strategy
- zero mistakes
Most players:
- miss optimal holds
- misread hand value
- rely on intuition
Every mistake lowers real-world RTP.
How Much Do Mistakes Really Cost?
Small errors feel harmless:
- holding the wrong kicker
- chasing a weak straight
- keeping a low pair incorrectly
But over time:
- a 1% error rate can cost thousands of hands of value
- EV erosion compounds silently
Skill gaps are expensive.
The Compounding Effect of Repeated Errors
One mistake doesn’t hurt much.
Hundreds of mistakes:
- lower effective RTP
- increase losses
- exaggerate volatility
This is why casual players feel unlucky—even when variance is normal.
Skill Matters More in High-Variance Games
In volatile variants:
- fewer winning hands exist
- mistakes remove access to premium payouts
This makes correct play even more important.
High variance magnifies skill gaps.
Multi-Play Amplifies Skill Impact
In multi-play:
- one decision affects multiple hands
- errors multiply instantly
Good strategy scales EV upward.
Bad strategy accelerates losses.
Why “Close Enough” Strategy Isn’t Enough
Many players:
- memorize partial charts
- rely on memory shortcuts
But video poker strategy is precise.
Small deviations:
- shift EV noticeably
- reduce RTP meaningfully
Accuracy matters.
Skill vs Bankroll Confusion
Skill improves:
- long-term outcomes
It does not:
- eliminate losing streaks
- prevent variance
Good players still lose—but less over time.
Learning Curve of Video Poker Skill
Players improve by:
- studying strategy charts
- using training software
- reviewing mistakes
Improvement is gradual, not instant.
Online Play Exposes Skill Faster
Online games:
- move faster
- produce more hands per hour
This means:
- mistakes appear sooner
- EV loss compounds faster
Skill gaps become obvious online.
Common Skill-Based Errors
Players often:
- overvalue made hands
- ignore draw potential
- misapply strategy across variants
Each error chips away at EV.
Why Casinos Love Low-Skill Players
Lower skill means:
- lower effective RTP
- higher casino profit
This is why video poker remains profitable despite high theoretical returns.
Improving Skill Without Increasing Risk
Best approach:
- practice at low stakes
- master one variant
- focus on accuracy, not speed
Raising stakes before skill locks in is costly.
Skill Plateaus Are Normal
Many players:
- improve quickly at first
- stall without structured practice
Breaking plateaus requires:
- focused review
- error tracking
Blind repetition doesn’t help.
FAQs on Skill and Expected Returns
Does Skill Change RTP?
Yes. It determines how close you get to it.
Can Beginners Play Perfect Strategy?
Rarely at first.
Does Skill Matter More Than Luck?
Over time, yes.
Is Skill More Important Than Game Choice?
Both matter, but skill controls EV.
Can Skill Eliminate Losses?
No. It reduces them long-term.
Where To Go Next
Now that you understand how skill level impacts expected returns, the next step is learning how small errors reduce RTP through measurable error rates.
Next Article: Understanding Error Rates & How They Affect RTP (article #29)
Next Steps
If you want multi-play context, read: Why Some Players Prefer Multi-Play Video Poker (article #27)
If you want to quantify mistakes next, read: Understanding Error Rates & How They Affect RTP (article #29)
Want the full framework? Use: The Complete Guide to Video Poker (pillar)
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