What “The Bubble” Means
The bubble is the stage where:
- the next player(s) eliminated will miss the money
- everyone else will cash
Example:
- Tournament pays top 100
- 101 players left
- You are on the bubble
The closer you are to the money, the stronger the psychological pressure becomes.
If you want the full tournament overview first, start with Online Poker Guide: Rules, Strategy & Tips (Pillar). This article gives you practical bubble strategy you can apply immediately: how ICM changes decisions, who to pressure, and how to avoid the biggest bubble punts.
Why The Bubble Changes Everything: ICM Pressure
On the bubble, chips are not equal in value.
Busting costs you your entire chance at cashing.
Winning chips helps you, but not as much as you think.
That’s why the bubble creates a key adjustment:
Call tighter. Shove wider (in the right spots).
If you want the concept behind this, revisit Understanding ICM (Independent Chip Model) In Tournaments.
The Most Important Bubble Question: Who Covers Who?
Bubble strategy starts with one question:
Can they bust me?
- If someone covers you, their pressure is stronger because they can eliminate you.
- If you cover someone, your pressure is stronger because you threaten their tournament life.
This is why big stacks become bullies on the bubble.
Bubble Strategy By Stack Size
Your bubble plan should change based on whether you’re short, medium, or big.
If You’re A Short Stack
Short stacks don’t have the luxury of waiting forever. Your goal is to:
- find a profitable shove spot
- collect blinds and antes
- avoid blinding out into a forced shove
Short stack bubble guidelines:
- shove more from late position when folds are likely
- avoid calling all-ins too wide (calling can be worse than shoving)
- look for spots vs medium stacks who don’t want to bust
If You’re A Medium Stack (The “Pressure Stack”)
Medium stacks feel the most bubble pain because:
- they don’t want to bust before shorter stacks
- they also don’t want to get blinded down
This is where many players make their biggest mistake:
- folding everything and getting crushed by blinds/antes
Medium stack guidelines:
- you can still apply pressure, especially in position
- choose shove spots carefully
- tighten calls vs big stacks who can bust you
If You’re A Big Stack
Big stacks can win huge on the bubble because:
- they can threaten eliminations
- opponents overfold to avoid busting
- they can survive losing a pot
Big stack guidelines:
- open wider in late position
- 3-bet more against players who fold too much
- target medium stacks who are trying to “squeeze into the money”
- avoid punting by calling off too loose versus other big stacks
The Bubble “Call vs Shove” Rule
Here’s a practical bubble rule that saves bankroll and boosts ROI:
Calling
Call tighter because:
- you bust when you lose
- you lose future cash equity
- you often don’t need to take thin spots
Shoving
Shove can be wider because:
- you have fold equity
- dead money is valuable (blinds/antes)
- opponents are trying to survive
This is why bubble poker is often:
- aggressive preflop
- conservative when calling off
Who To Attack On The Bubble
The best bubble targets are:
- medium stacks who fold too much
- players who have shown “min-cash” behavior
- players who just lost a pot and are scared
- tight blinds who are waiting to cash
The worst bubble targets:
- loose callers who don’t care about cashing
- big stacks who can fight back
- strong players who understand ICM and won’t overfold
Bubble Mistakes That Cost Real Money
- calling all-ins too wide because “I’m ahead”
- folding too much and becoming desperate
- trying to bully when you’re the one who can be busted
- battling other big stacks without a strong reason
- making emotional decisions (“I deserve to cash”)
- playing faster because of pressure
Bubble profit comes from calm, accurate decisions.
A Simple Bubble Checklist (Use In Real Time)
Before you enter a big pot on the bubble, ask:
- Am I covered, or do I cover them?
- Are there shorter stacks likely to bust soon?
- Is this a shove spot (fold equity), or a call spot (risk of busting)?
- If I lose, do I miss the money?
- Is my opponent likely to overfold or call wide?
This slows down the emotional spiral that causes punts.
Quick Takeaways
- The bubble is the stage right before payouts begin
- ICM pressure is strongest here: chips aren’t equal and busting is costly
- “Who covers who” is the key bubble power dynamic
- Short stacks must find shove spots; medium stacks must avoid overfolding; big stacks can pressure safely
- Call tighter, shove wider (in the right spots)
- Attack medium stacks who are trying to survive, avoid ego battles vs big stacks
Mini FAQ
Should I Always Tighten Up On The Bubble?
You should tighten calls, but you can often widen shoves and steals if opponents are overfolding.
What’s The Biggest Bubble Mistake?
Calling off too wide because you’re “priced in” or “ahead.” Busting is the expensive outcome.
How Do I Stop Playing Scared?
Use a plan: know your stack size, know who covers who, and pick aggressive spots that rely on fold equity.
Where To Go Next
You’ve now learned how bubble pressure changes tournament decisions, why calling tightens, and how to pressure the right stacks without punting.
If you want to reinforce this, the best next move is to learn how to handle the most important endgame situation: final table strategy. Pay jumps get even bigger, and mistakes become even more expensive.
Continue with Understanding Final Table Strategy For Online Poker.
