Quick Takeaways
- The dealer bust chart estimates how often the dealer will bust based on the dealer’s upcard.
- Dealer 2–6 are generally the “bust cards,” while 7–A are usually stronger.
- Use the chart to understand why standing on some totals is correct against weak dealer cards—and why you must be more aggressive against strong cards.
If you want the full blackjack foundation first (rules, payouts, dealer rules, and table selection basics), start with The Complete Guide to Blackjack. This article will help you read dealer bust probability charts correctly and use them to stay calm in tough spots.
What the Dealer Bust Probability Chart Shows
A dealer bust probability chart is a table that lists:
- the dealer’s upcard (2 through Ace)
- the approximate probability that the dealer will bust if they play out the hand under standard rules
The dealer doesn’t choose freely. They follow fixed rules like:
- hit until 17 or more
- possibly hit soft 17 (H17) or stand (S17)
Those rules make dealer outcomes predictable over many hands.
If you want a refresher on dealer rules, revisit Understanding Dealer Rules: Hit, Stand & Soft Totals.
Why Dealer Bust Probability Matters
Blackjack decisions are not just about your hand.
They’re about:
- your hand total
- and what the dealer is likely to do
If the dealer is likely to bust (weak upcard), your best move is often:
- don’t bust first
- let the dealer make the mistake
If the dealer is unlikely to bust (strong upcard), you often need to:
- improve your hand
- even if it means taking controlled risk
This is one reason basic strategy looks “weird” sometimes. It’s reacting to dealer strength.
If you want the long-run logic behind decision-making, revisit How Expected Value Applies to Blackjack Decisions.
How to Read the Chart in 10 Seconds
Here’s the simplest way to read any dealer bust chart:
Step 1: Find the Dealer Upcard
Look at what the dealer is showing:
- 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace
Step 2: Note If It’s a Weak or Strong Card
Most charts reflect the same general pattern:
- 2–6: higher bust probability
- 7–A: lower bust probability
Step 3: Use It to Understand Your Strategy Choice
- Weak dealer upcard → you can stand more often on “good enough” totals
- Strong dealer upcard → you often must hit more to avoid losing by default
The Dealer’s “Bust Cards” and “Strong Cards”
You’ll often hear players describe upcards like this:
Dealer Bust Cards (Usually 2–6)
These upcards lead to more dealer busts because the dealer is more likely to be forced into multiple hits.
The most famous “bust card” is dealer 6.
Dealer Strong Cards (Usually 7–Ace)
These upcards are stronger because the dealer has a clearer path to reaching 17–21 without taking as many risky draws.
Dealer 10 and Ace are the most intimidating because:
- they often lead to strong totals
- and they trigger extra decision pressure (like the insurance offer on Ace)
If you want to understand why insurance is offered and why it’s usually not worth it, revisit Why Insurance Is a Bad Bet (Most of the Time).
How the Chart Connects to Hit vs Stand Decisions
Dealer bust probability helps explain a core blackjack concept:
Against Weak Dealer Cards (2–6)
Your goal is often:
- build a total that’s “safe enough”
- then stop taking risks
That’s why standing on totals like 12–16 can be correct against certain weak upcards. You’re not trying to make 21 every time. You’re letting the dealer bust.
Against Strong Dealer Cards (7–Ace)
Your goal is often:
- improve your hand because standing on a weak total loses too often
That’s why strategy becomes more aggressive:
- hitting more
- doubling in strong spots
- and accepting controlled risk
Why This Chart Does Not Replace Basic Strategy
This matters:
Dealer bust probability is a helpful lens, but it’s not a full decision system.
Because your decision also depends on:
- whether your hand is hard or soft
- whether you have a pair
- whether doubling/surrender is available
- the specific rule set (H17 vs S17, decks, etc.)
Basic strategy already accounts for all of that.
If you want to apply the chart moves correctly in real play, the best method is still using a strategy chart the right way.
See How to Use a Blackjack Strategy Chart Correctly.
How Rule Variations Change Dealer Bust Probability
Two rule factors matter most:
H17 vs S17
If the dealer hits soft 17 (H17), they take extra cards in some situations. That can:
- slightly change dealer outcome distributions
- affect bust rates and player edge
This is why rule selection matters even if the game “looks the same.”
(You’ll go deeper later in The Impact of Dealer Standing on Soft 17.)
Number of Decks and Penetration
Deck count and shoe depth influence card distribution over time, which can affect how hands “feel” across sessions—even if the dealer rules are fixed.
If you want to go deeper on shoe depth, revisit Understanding Blackjack Shoe Penetration & Why It Matters.
A Simple Way to Use the Chart Without Overthinking
Use the chart for one main purpose:
It tells you when the dealer is weak.
When the dealer is weak:
- don’t panic
- don’t chase
- don’t take unnecessary hits
- aim for “safe enough” and let the dealer finish
When the dealer is strong:
- accept that you’ll need more improvement hands
- focus on clean basic strategy, not emotions
If you want the mindset discipline that supports this, revisit Why “Gut Feeling” Is Never a Strategy in Blackjack.
Mini FAQ: Dealer Bust Probability Chart
1) What Dealer Upcard Busts the Most?
Most charts show dealer 5 or 6 as the highest bust cards.
2) Does a Dealer 2 Count as a Bust Card?
Yes, but it’s weaker than 4–6 in most chart patterns.
3) If the Dealer Is Likely to Bust, Should I Always Stand?
No. You still need to follow basic strategy based on your total and hand type.
4) Does H17 Change Bust Probability?
Yes, slightly. Dealer drawing on soft 17 changes outcomes and affects the edge.
5) Can This Chart Help Me Memorize Strategy?
It helps you understand why strategy changes by dealer upcard, which makes memorization easier.
Where To Go Next
Now that you understand dealer bust probability, the next step is comparing blackjack variants to find which ones offer the best player odds—because rules change both bust rates and your long-run edge.
Continue with Which Blackjack Variants Offer the Best Player Odds.
