Key Insights
Quick Answer:
- Best X for Y: Best Low-Variance Variant: Jacks or Better
- Best time to do X: Best Time to Consider Variance: Before choosing a game
- Biggest mistake: Choosing games by RTP alone
- Pro tip: Higher variance means longer losing streaks, not worse math
What Variance Means in Video Poker
Variance describes:
- how often you win
- how big those wins are
- how results cluster
Low variance:
- frequent small wins
- smoother bankroll curves
High variance:
- fewer wins
- bigger swings
- longer dry spells
Variance does not change RTP. It changes experience.
Why Variance Exists at All
Variance comes from:
- payout distribution
- hand frequency
- premium hand value
Games that rely on:
- frequent medium hands
have lower variance
Games that rely on:
- rare, massive hands
have higher variance
Low-Variance Video Poker Games
Examples include:
- Jacks or Better (full pay)
- Joker Poker (some versions)
These games:
- pay often
- feel steadier
- suit smaller bankrolls
Losses happen, but swings are manageable.
Medium-Variance Video Poker Games
Examples include:
- Bonus Poker
- Double Bonus Poker
These games:
- redistribute payouts
- reduce mid-tier hands
- reward patience
They feel streaky but not brutal.
High-Variance Video Poker Games
Examples include:
- Double Double Bonus Poker
- Deuces Wild
These games:
- push value into rare hands
- punish mistakes heavily
- create long dry spells
Winning sessions feel explosive. Losing sessions feel endless.
How Paytables Drive Variance
Even within the same variant:
- variance can change
- based on paytable tweaks
Reducing:
- full house
- flush payouts
and increasing:
- four of a kind payouts
raises variance without changing RTP dramatically.
Strategy and Variance Interaction
Higher-variance games:
- punish errors more
- magnify bad decisions
Low-variance games:
- are more forgiving
- hide mistakes longer
This is why beginners should start low variance.
Variance vs Session Length
Short sessions:
- feel harsher in high variance
- don’t reflect RTP
Long sessions:
- smooth results
- reveal true distribution
Variance doesn’t disappear—it averages out over time.
Bankroll Requirements by Variance Level
General guidelines:
- Low variance: smaller bankroll OK
- Medium variance: moderate buffer needed
- High variance: large bankroll required
Ignoring this leads to frustration, not bad luck.
Choosing Variance Based on Goals
Choose low variance if you:
- want steady play
- prefer smaller swings
- are learning strategy
Choose high variance if you:
- chase big wins
- accept long losing streaks
- play perfectly
Why Variance Feels Emotional
Human brains:
- remember losses vividly
- overreact to streaks
High-variance games:
- amplify emotional swings
- trigger tilt faster
Understanding variance reduces emotional mistakes.
Online vs Casino Variance
Variance is:
- built into the game
- identical online and in casinos
The difference is:
- speed of play
- number of hands per hour
Faster play compresses variance faster.
Common Variance Myths
False beliefs include:
- “High variance means worse odds”
- “Low variance guarantees wins”
- “Variance resets daily”
None are true.
Variance and Professional Play
Experienced players:
- choose variance intentionally
- size bankrolls accordingly
- don’t switch games mid-session
Variance is a tool—not a surprise.
FAQs on Video Poker Variance
Does Higher Variance Mean Better RTP?
No. They’re separate concepts.
Can I Control Variance?
Only by choosing the game—not during play.
Is Variance the Same as Volatility?
Yes, in casino terms.
Should Beginners Avoid High Variance Games?
Yes. Start low and move up.
Does Multi-Hand Increase Variance?
Yes, dramatically.
Where To Go Next
Now that you understand how variance changes between video poker variants, the next step is seeing why specific games swing harder than others.
Next Article: Why Deuces Wild Is More Volatile Than Jacks or Better (article #19)
Next Steps
If you want legality context, read: Why Video Poker Strategy Cards Are Legal and Encouraged (article #17)
If you want variant comparison next, read: Why Deuces Wild Is More Volatile Than Jacks or Better (article #19)
Want the full framework? Use: The Complete Guide to Video Poker (pillar)
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