Quick Answer: What Is Controlled Shooting?
Controlled shooting is the claim that a shooter can throw dice in a consistent way that:
- reduces the chance of rolling a 7
- or increases certain outcomes
over time.
If that control were strong and repeatable, it could change the math of the game.
The controversy is that most evidence people use is:
- short streaks
- table stories
- and “it looked skilled” vibes
not proof over thousands of rolls.
If you want the full big-picture guide first, start here: The Complete Guide To Craps.
What People Claim Controlled Shooters Can Do
You’ll usually hear one of these claims:
Claim 1: “They Avoid Sevens”
The most common claim is:
- “He’s keeping the 7 away.”
Because seven out ends the hand, avoiding 7 would extend rolls and help many bets.
Claim 2: “They Hit Specific Numbers”
Some claim they can steer outcomes toward:
- 6 and 8
- or point numbers
Claim 3: “Dice Setting Makes It Happen”
This claim links controlled shooting to dice setting:
- “He sets hardways, so he controls.”
But setting and control are not the same thing.
If you want that distinction, read Understanding Dice Setting & Why It’s Controversial.
Why The Human Brain Falls For The Controlled Shooting Myth
This topic is a trap because humans are built to see patterns.
When someone rolls for a long time, it feels like:
- skill
not luck.
But in dice games:
- long streaks happen naturally
- and rare events feel meaningful
The “Hot Shooter” Effect
A shooter can roll 20+ times without a 7.
That’s uncommon, but it’s not impossible.
And when it happens, people remember it forever.
They don’t remember the next 50 shooters who seven out quickly.
What Would Need To Be True For Control To Matter
For controlled shooting to be real in a way that changes odds, a shooter would need:
- consistent release angle
- consistent spin rate
- consistent landing zone
- minimal dice collision chaos
- predictable bounce
- and still obey casino rules (one hand, hit the wall)
That last part matters most.
Because casinos force the dice to:
- hit the back wall
- bounce
- tumble
That’s the entire point.
If you want the rules that protect randomness, read How To Handle Dice Properly (Casino Rules).
Why The Back Wall Is Basically Anti-Control
The back wall has pyramid bumps. It creates chaotic rebounds.
Even if you could “control” the dice before the wall:
- the wall scramble destroys consistency
That’s why casinos insist the dice reach it.
So whenever someone says “controlled shooter,” ask:
- are they hitting the back wall every time?
If yes, control gets dramatically harder.
If no, the table will usually warn them or call “no roll.”
The Biggest Red Flag: Small Sample Size
Most controlled shooting stories are based on:
- one session
- one hot shooter
- one night
That’s not enough.
To prove control, you’d need:
- a huge number of rolls
- recorded outcomes
- consistent results
- and a meaningful change from normal dice probabilities
That’s hard to show at a casino table where:
- conditions change
- dice change
- rules are enforced
- and true randomness is high
Can A Skilled Throw Look Different? Yes. Does That Prove Control? No.
You can absolutely see shooters who:
- toss softly but still hit the wall
- land dice in similar spots
- keep the dice from flying everywhere
That can look “skilled.”
But “skilled-looking” doesn’t automatically mean:
- the outcome distribution changed
It just means they throw neatly.
The Real Danger: Changing Your Bets Because You Believe The Myth
Here’s where controlled shooting becomes expensive.
People see a hot shooter and start:
- pressing bets too aggressively
- adding risky bets they don’t normally play
- firing prop bets constantly
- chasing because “this is the one”
Then the shooter seven outs, and the bankroll damage is real.
The smartest approach is to treat every shooter the same:
- follow your plan
- size bets responsibly
- accept that seven out is always coming eventually
If you want the emotional reset explanation, read What “Seven Out” Means & Why It Ends The Shooter’s Turn.
A Better Way To Think About “Skill” In Craps
There is one kind of skill that matters in craps, and it’s not dice control.
It’s behavior skill:
- choosing lower-cost bets
- managing bankroll
- avoiding tilt
- not chasing
- staying consistent
That’s real, repeatable, and under your control.
Dice outcomes are not.
How To Respond When Someone At The Table Talks About Control
You don’t need to argue.
Just do this:
- smile
- stick to your unit size
- avoid increasing exposure because of hype
- don’t copy center bets because “he’s hot”
- let the results speak for themselves
You can enjoy the vibe without buying the myth.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Controlled Shooting In Craps Real?
Some people claim it is, but proving meaningful control under casino rules (one hand, back wall, no sliding) is extremely difficult. Most “proof” is short streaks.
Does Dice Setting Help Control The Dice?
Dice setting is just the starting orientation. To change outcomes, you’d need consistent control through bounces and wall contact, which is hard to do.
Why Do Casinos Require The Dice To Hit The Back Wall?
To increase randomness and reduce any chance of controlled outcomes.
Should I Bet Bigger On A Hot Shooter?
Usually no. Hot streaks happen naturally. Increasing bets based on streaks is a common bankroll mistake.
What’s The Best “Skill” In Craps?
Bankroll discipline and smart bet selection, not trying to control the dice.
Where To Go Next
You now understand why controlled shooting is so controversial: a neat throw can look skilled, but proving long-term control under back wall rules is extremely hard, and most stories are based on small samples and hot streaks.
Next, we’ll look at how dice bouncing affects randomness, and why even tiny physical chaos makes outcomes harder to “steer.”
Continue with How Dice Bouncing Affects Randomness In Craps.
