Quick Answer: Are Bonus Side Bets Hard To Hit?
Yes. Bonus side bets are usually long shots.
They’re designed around rare patterns, like:
- making multiple points in one shooter hand (Fire Bet)
- rolling a full set of numbers before a seven (All Tall / All Small)
Even when the table feels “close,” the remaining number(s) you need might be the hardest part.
If you want the full big-picture guide first, start here: The Complete Guide To Craps.
Why Bonus Bets Feel Easier Than They Are
Bonus bets are a perfect mix of:
- big payout numbers
- frequent “near misses”
- loud table energy
- and selective memory (“I saw it hit once!”)
That combo tricks your brain into thinking:
- “This happens all the time.”
But most sessions won’t see a bonus hit—especially the top payout versions.
If you want a refresher on how these bets work mechanically, read How Bonus Craps Variants Work (Fire Bet, All Tall/All Small, Etc.).
The One Rule To Remember: Payouts Don’t Tell You Value
A bonus bet paying 100-to-1 sounds amazing.
But value is not the payout. Value is:
How often it hits vs how much it pays.
If a bet pays 100-to-1 but only hits 1 time in 300 tries, it’s expensive, even if it’s “possible.”
That’s why you should evaluate bonus bets with implied odds.
How To Judge A Bonus Bet In 30 Seconds
Here’s the quick method you can use on any bonus payout chart.
Step 1: Convert The Payout To “Implied Probability”
If a bet pays 30-to-1, the payout suggests (roughly):
- it would need to hit about 1 out of 31 times to break even (before factoring details)
If it pays 100-to-1, it would need to hit about:
- 1 out of 101 times
Step 2: Ask One Question
“Does this pattern happen anywhere near that often?”
For most bonus bets, the honest answer is:
- no
That’s why casinos love them.
The True Odds Of The Fire Bet (What You’re Really Betting On)
The Fire Bet is usually based on how many distinct points a shooter makes before seven out.
Typical milestones look like:
- 4 points made
- 5 points made
- 6 points made
(Exact rules and payouts vary by casino.)
Why It’s Hard
To hit higher Fire Bet tiers, the shooter must do two rare things in the same hand:
- avoid seven out for a long time
- make multiple points, not just roll numbers
A shooter can have a long hand and still not hit the Fire Bet milestones if:
- points don’t get made
- or the same point repeats
The “Feels Close” Trap
This is where people get fooled:
A long roll makes everyone think:
- “We’re due for a Fire Bet hit.”
But Fire Bet progress isn’t “time-based.” It’s “milestone-based.”
So a long roll does not automatically mean you’re near the payout.
What Fire Bet Really Is
It’s basically:
- “Can this shooter string together a rare sequence of point-makes before a seven ends everything?”
That’s why top-tier Fire Bet hits are memorable events—not regular ones.
The True Odds Of All Tall / All Small
All Tall / All Small (ATS) is usually based on completing number sets before a seven appears.
Common structure:
- Small: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- Tall: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- All: both sets completed
Why It’s Hard
ATS is difficult for two reasons:
- The set includes rare numbers
- 2 and 12 are relatively rare
- 11 is less common than “mid numbers”
So even if you’re cruising through 6/8 hits, you might still be missing a “tough” number.
- The seven resets everything
No matter how close you are, one seven ends the attempt.
The “Missing One Number” Trap
ATS creates one of the strongest near-miss effects in the casino.
You’ll hear:
- “We just need a 12!”
But needing a 12 isn’t the same as being close.
It can take a long time to see it—and you might see a seven first.
Why “Near Miss” Is Not “Good Odds”
Here’s the simplest way to think about it:
If you’re missing one number (like 12), your success depends on:
- “Do we roll 12 before seven out ends the hand?”
That can be a real long shot depending on the stage of the hand and the required number.
So when the table screams “we’re close,” you should translate it to:
- “we’re emotionally close, not mathematically safe.”
Why Bonus Bets Raise Your Session Cost Even When You “Only Bet $5”
The danger isn’t just the odds.
It’s repetition.
A $5 bonus bet feels tiny, but if you place it:
- shooter after shooter
- for hours
it becomes a meaningful part of your total action.
And bonus bets also create behavior changes:
- you stay longer
- you press more
- you chase “one more shooter”
If you want to know about the chasing spiral explained, read Why Chasing Losses Is Especially Dangerous In Craps.
When Bonus Bets Can Make Sense (The Only “Smart” Way)
Bonus bets can make sense if you treat them like:
- entertainment spending
That means:
Rule 1: Bonus Bets Get A Fixed Budget
Example:
- “$20 total bonus bets for the entire session.”
Not per shooter. Not per hour. Total.
Rule 2: You Don’t Raise Bonus Bet Size
If you increase the bonus bet after losses, you’ve turned it into a chase tool.
Rule 3: Your Main Plan Stays Clean
Your session should still be built around:
- the bets you understand
- fixed unit sizing
- controlled exposure
Bonus bets are a “side snack,” not the meal.
A Simple Bonus Bet Reality Check
Before you place a bonus bet, ask:
- Would I still like this bet if I knew it probably won’t hit today?
- Am I placing it because it’s fun, or because I feel “close”?
- If it loses 10 times in a row, will I stay calm?
- Do I have a hard budget for it?
If you can’t answer those cleanly, skip it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Bonus Craps Side Bets Worth It?
They can be fun, but they’re usually long shots. The payouts are big because the odds of hitting are low, so they often increase your overall session cost.
Which Bonus Bet Hits More Often: Fire Bet Or All Tall/All Small?
It depends on the casino’s exact rules and payouts. In general, both are rare, and the top payout tiers are especially uncommon.
If I’m Only Missing One Number On ATS, Am I “Close”?
Emotionally yes, but not necessarily mathematically. If the missing number is rare (like 12), you can still see a seven before it shows up.
Should I Increase My Bonus Bet When The Table Is Hot?
No. That’s usually a chase move. If you play bonus bets, keep sizing fixed and use a strict session budget.
What’s The Best Way To Play Bonus Bets Safely?
Treat them as entertainment: set a total bonus budget, don’t increase sizing, and don’t let “near miss” moments change your main plan.
Where To Go Next
You now know how to think about the true odds of bonus craps side bets: big payouts don’t mean good value, near misses are psychologically powerful, and repeating small bonus bets can quietly raise your session cost.
Next, we’ll zoom out and compare the house edge across all craps bets, so you can see which bets are generally lower-cost and which ones are “fun but expensive.”
Continue with Understanding The House Edge Across All Craps Bets.
