Quick Answer: What Is Expected Loss Per Hour?
Expected loss per hour is your average long-term cost of playing baccarat per hour.
It depends on three things:
- your average bet size
- the house edge on that bet
- how many hands you play per hour
Bigger bets and faster tables usually mean a higher expected hourly cost.
If you want the full big-picture guide first, start here: The Complete Guide To Baccarat.
The Simple Formula
Use this:
Expected Loss Per Hour = Average Bet × House Edge × Hands Per Hour
Important: this is expected value (a long-run average), not a promise for any single hour. Real results swing up and down because baccarat has variance.
What House Edge Should You Use?
You don’t need perfect decimals for this to be useful. You just need a reasonable estimate based on what you’re betting.
If You Mostly Bet Banker Or Player
These are generally the lowest-edge main bets in baccarat, so a rough “around 1%” estimate works fine for planning.
(Exact numbers vary by rules and commission structure.)
If You Bet Tie Or A Lot Of Side Bets
Your edge is usually much higher, which means your expected hourly cost can jump fast.
If you want a simple breakdown, read Understanding Tie Bets & Why They’re Risky.
How Many Hands Per Hour Should You Assume?
Hands per hour depends on the setup.
A simple range:
- slow table: 40–60 hands/hour
- normal pace: 60–80 hands/hour
- fast table: 80–100+ hands/hour
Online baccarat often feels faster because there are fewer natural pauses.
If you want the clearest explanation of why speed matters, read How Game Speed Affects Expected Loss Rates.
Example 1: A Typical Casual Session
Let’s say you:
- bet $10 per hand
- mostly play Banker/Player
- play 70 hands per hour
- use ~1% as a rough edge
Expected loss per hour ≈
$10 × 0.01 × 70 = $7 per hour
That does not mean you’ll lose $7 every hour. It means over many hours, that’s the average cost of that pace and bet size.
Example 2: Same Bets, Faster Table
Same setup, but faster pace:
- $10 bet
- 100 hands per hour
Expected loss per hour ≈
$10 × 0.01 × 100 = $10 per hour
Nothing changed except speed.
Example 3: Bigger Bet Size Changes Everything
Now keep the pace normal:
- $50 bet
- 70 hands/hour
- ~1% edge
Expected loss per hour ≈
$50 × 0.01 × 70 = $35 per hour
This is why baccarat “feels expensive” when your unit is too big. Even a small change in bet size can multiply the hourly cost.
If you want help choosing limits that fit your bankroll, read How To Choose The Best Baccarat Table Limits.
The Two Mistakes That Make Expected Loss Explode
Mistake 1: Your Average Bet Quietly Rises
People start at $10… then:
- press after wins
- increase to chase
- add side bets “just this once”
Expected loss is based on your average bet. If your average bet doubles, your hourly cost roughly doubles too.
If you want a clean way to keep it stable, read How To Use Flat Betting In Baccarat.
Mistake 2: You Play Too Many Hands Per Hour
Fast tables increase the number of times you “pay the edge.”
That’s why fast sessions can feel more expensive even when you don’t change bet size.
How To Use Expected Loss Per Hour In Real Life
This concept is most useful as a planning tool.
1) Choose A Bet Size That Matches Your Budget
If your budget is:
- $50 for the night
- and you plan to play two hours
then a $35–$50 expected hourly cost is too high. You’ll feel pressured and more likely to chase.
Expected loss per hour helps you scale down to a comfortable unit.
2) Set A Time Plan That Matches Your Bankroll
If you know speed increases cost, you can choose:
- shorter sessions
- longer breaks
- fewer hands played
A simple rule: when the table feels too fast, reduce hands—not just money.
3) Avoid High-Edge Bets If You Want A Cheaper Session
Tie bets and many side bets can raise your hourly cost quickly.
If your goal is smoother play, keep it mostly to Banker/Player.
A Simple “Session Cost” Checklist
Before you play, decide:
- Average bet: ___
- Table speed (hands/hour): ___
- Rough edge: ___
- Expected loss/hour: ___
- Planned session time: ___
- Budget for the session: ___
Even rough estimates help you avoid drifting into a session you didn’t plan to pay for.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Expected Loss Per Hour Guaranteed?
No. It’s an average over time. You can win or lose more in a single hour because baccarat has variance.
What Bet Has The Lowest Expected Loss?
Usually the Banker bet has the lowest house edge under standard rules, but exact values depend on commission and house rules.
Does A Faster Table Always Cost More?
Usually yes, because you place more bets per hour. If you lower your bet size or sit out hands, you can control the cost.
Should I Use Expected Loss To Decide When To Stop?
It’s a helpful planning tool, but you should still use stop-loss and time limits to avoid chasing.
How Can I Lower My Expected Loss Per Hour?
Lower your average bet, play fewer hands per hour (take breaks), and avoid high-edge bets like Tie and many side bets.
Where To Go Next
You now know how to estimate expected loss per hour in baccarat, why speed and bet size matter, and how to use this to pick better limits and session length.
Continue with The Psychology Of Chasing Streaks In Baccarat.
