Quick Answer: Why Do Progressions Fail?
Because progressions can’t fix three realities:
- baccarat outcomes don’t become “due”
- losing streaks happen
- your bankroll and table limits are not infinite
Eventually, the streak that breaks your system shows up.
If you want the full big-picture guide first, start here: The Complete Guide To Baccarat.
What A Betting Progression Really Is
A progression is any system that changes bet size based on recent results.
Common types:
- negative progression: increase after a loss (Martingale-style)
- positive progression: increase after a win (Paroli-style)
- pattern-based progressions: increase when the board “looks right”
They feel different, but they all rely on the same hope:
“I can use bet sizing to control randomness.”
You can’t.
The Core Problem: Baccarat Has No Memory
Each hand is its own event.
Banker doesn’t become “due” because Player won five in a row.
Player doesn’t become “due” because Banker hit three naturals.
So a progression that assumes “it must turn soon” is built on a false idea.
If you want the clean truth on this mindset, read How To Predict Nothing In Baccarat — And Still Play Smart.
Why Negative Progressions Blow Up (Martingale, Etc.)
Negative progressions are the classic “double after a loss” systems.
They fail because losing streaks don’t stop when your bankroll gets uncomfortable.
The Math Trap (Simple Example)
If you double each loss:
1 → 2 → 4 → 8 → 16 → 32 → 64
That’s only six losses in a row and you’re already betting 64 units.
Most players don’t have the bankroll for that. And even if you do, the table often doesn’t.
Table Limits End The System
Every baccarat table has:
- a minimum
- a maximum
The max is the system killer.
When you hit the max, you can’t double anymore, so the system breaks exactly when it needs one more step.
Why Positive Progressions Still Fail (Pressing Wins)
Positive progressions feel safer because you’re “playing with profits.”
But they still fail for two reasons:
1) Streaks End Fast
You press into a streak, then it flips, and you give back multiple wins in one loss.
2) They Encourage Overstaying
Press systems often keep you at the table longer because:
- “I’m on a run”
- “Just one more win”
- “This shoe is hot”
That’s how people turn a good session into a break-even or losing session.
Why Pattern-Based Progressions Are The Worst Of Both Worlds
These systems say:
- “Bet bigger when the Big Road shows a streak”
- “Switch on chops”
- “Follow the board”
The board doesn’t change the odds.
So what you’re really doing is:
- increasing volatility
- increasing emotional pressure
- increasing the chance of chasing
If you want the truth on boards, read Why Pattern Tracking Doesn’t Predict Baccarat Outcomes.
The Hidden Killer: Progressions Raise Your Average Bet
Even if you don’t “blow up,” progressions often increase your average bet size.
And your average bet size drives:
- volatility
- expected loss per hour
- how fast your bankroll cycles
If you want the simple model, read How Game Speed Affects Expected Loss Rates.
Progressions often fail quietly:
not with one massive crash, but with steady leakage because you keep betting bigger.
Why Progressions Feel Like They Work (Sometimes)
Progressions can look amazing in short runs because baccarat has variance.
You might win:
- three presses in a row
- a quick Martingale recovery
- a “perfect” streak you rode
But that doesn’t prove the system works long-term.
It proves you got a lucky run before the bad streak arrived.
That’s the trap.
What To Do Instead (Safer Options)
If you want control, use tools that don’t depend on streak prediction.
Option 1: Flat Betting + Session Rules
Flat bet one unit.
Use a stop-loss and win goal.
Use time blocks.
This is boring, but it works for discipline.
Read How To Use Flat Betting In Baccarat if you want the clean setup.
Option 2: One-Step Press Only
If you want a little excitement:
- after a win, press one step for one hand
- then return to base no matter what
This gives upside without a long progression ladder.
Option 3: Sit Out Hands On Purpose
This doesn’t “improve odds,” but it helps:
- break autopilot
- reduce hands per hour
- reduce total action
That lowers session cost and prevents tilt stacking.
A Simple Rule To Remember
If your system requires:
- unlimited bankroll
- unlimited table limits
- perfect emotional control
it’s not a real system.
It’s a fantasy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do Any Betting Systems Beat Baccarat?
No system changes the house edge. Systems mainly change volatility and how fast you can lose during bad streaks.
Why Does Martingale Feel Like It Works?
Because many losing streaks end quickly, so you recover often. But when a longer streak hits, the required bet size grows too fast.
Are Positive Progressions Safer Than Martingale?
They’re usually less explosive, but they can still give back profits quickly and encourage longer sessions.
Do Scoreboards Make Progressions More Accurate?
No. Boards don’t predict outcomes. They mainly change how people feel and bet.
What’s The Safest Alternative To Progressions?
Flat betting with a stop-loss, win goal, and time blocks is the cleanest way to keep control.
Where To Go Next
You now know why betting progressions fail in baccarat: the game has no memory, streaks happen, and table limits plus bankroll constraints eventually break the system.
Next, we’ll get practical and talk about tracking your baccarat sessions, so you can see patterns in your own behavior (not in the scoreboard) and improve your discipline over time.
Continue with How To Track Your Baccarat Sessions Effectively.
